Budget 2024-25: ‘People are realizing there are no free lunches…

…ultimately, they’ll have to foot the bill with more or higher taxes’

Interview: Dharam Gokhool

* ‘Xavier Duval finds himself at a crucial crossroad. Difficult decisions must be made.
Will he compromise his principles and align with the MSM, or will he adhere to them?’

* ‘There should be no illusion about the FCC’s agenda. Some visible signs of its intentions are already emerging’

Following the recent Indian elections, the need to decipher lessons from the outcomes is vital. While the BJP-led NDA Alliance secured a majority under PM Modi’s leadership, the Opposition INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi, made significant progress. These results highlight the unpredictability of electoral preferences, challenging exit polls’ reliability and reaffirming democracy’s reliance on voters. As Mauritius potentially approaches its own elections, today’s budget presentation may shed light on the MSM-led government’s electoral strategy. Dharam Gokhool, former Labour government minister, shares insights into the economic and social factors shaping the electoral landscape.

Mauritius Times:  While the context may differ, there are valuable lessons to be learned from the results of the Indian elections announced last Tuesday. What can we learn from these election outcomes?

Dharam Gokhool: The BJP-led NDA Alliance of PM Modi, running for a third mandate secured the majority needed to form its third consecutive government, but it fell short of its goal of winning a substantial majority of 400+ seats. Additionally, the party made gains in the South but lost ground in the North. The Opposition INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi, made significant progress both in the North and South, and Congress secured a total of 99 seats, propelling Rahul Gandhi as a serious a challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Although the context is different, and it may take some time to digest all the facts and figures to get a clearer picture of what happened and why, already a few preliminary lessons can be drawn.

Firstly, in a democracy, people are sovereign, and they can make and unmake governments and governments stay in power so long as they uphold the trust of the people. Otherwise, voter discontent finds its voice in the ballot box.

During his two mandates, Prime Minister Modi delivered on many of his key manifesto promises like generous welfare programmes but was not able to tackle socio-economic challenges like joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality that hurt the common people the most.

His closeness with the business sector created the perception that corporate interests were being favoured at the expense of people’s interests, and the Opposition successfully exploited this perception to its advantage. It contributed to erode people’s trust in Modi’s government and resulted in significant loss of seats for his party.

Secondly, Indian democracy, since the painful days of its independence, has been built on secular principles, with tolerance and peaceful coexistence as its main foundation stones. Divisive politics have limits and, when stretched too far, can backfire in the long run. In UP, the home to the Ram Mandir, consecrated on January 24, surprisingly, did not provide BJP with the traction it expected, and it suffered severe setbacks.

Thirdly, when governments stay in power for too long, the risks associated with abuse or misuse of power increases and people opt for a change. This is the anti-incumbency syndrome which can also adversely impact on a government’s chances of retaining power. After two successive mandates, it is likely that the Modi government also suffered from the anti-incumbency factor as it has happened in many other democracies.

Fourthly, once again, as in many other cases, we find that exit polls are not reliable indicators of the people’s voting preferences. Pollsters and psychologists are not able to read voters’ minds with accuracy. It is the ballot box that continues to hold the secret of electoral outcomes.

And finally, the results also show that we must not lose faith in democracy and that people are the ultimate guardians of democracy. They decide and will keep politicians under control through checks and balances. Their support will contribute to recalibrate the INDIA alliance and hopefully restore and strengthen the democratic credentials of India.

* There could also be an element of “wear and tear of power” behind the mediocre electoral performance of mainstream parties in many countries, which could explain the gradual erosion of support and popularity of a leader or political party as a result of being in power for an extended period. Both the Labour Party, the MMM and the MSM have had that bitter experience here, and it seems they have yet to fully grasp that lesson. What do you think?

In any system, human or biological, renewal or regeneration is essential, otherwise the system loses its dynamism and relevance. The system will fall prey to a phenomenon known as entropy. A state of disorder, decay and death.

The same principle applies to political systems and parties that persist with outdated practices. Indeed, in many countries, political parties have become victims of the “wear and tear of power,” losing support and popularity. This decline has created opportunities for new players to emerge as alternatives and competitors.

The Mauritian political current landscape with some 50% of the electorate sitting on the fence could be an indication of a certain degree of disillusionment with mainstream political parties. On the other hand, it could also be an indication of what we call the extra-Parliamentary parties’ inability to attract this large chunk of undecided voters to their fold.

But all is not lost for mainstream political parties. Their leaders have a significant opportunity to undertake major re-engineering programmes within their establishments to stop the erosion of support and popularity. Will they take up the challenge to rethink, reboot, and rebound? That remains an unanswered question in the minds of many.

* Factors such as resolute leadership, pragmatic governance, and meritocracy have contributed to the victories of Lee Kuan Yew’s People’s Action Party in all Singaporean elections post-independence. But it’s crucial to have an informed electorate, rather than an opportunist and fickle one that’s easily swayed by freebies, to achieve such electoral dominance. That is not always available everywhere, including in Mauritius, wouldn’t you agree?

During electoral campaigns, recourse to freebies has now become a standard political practice and to a certain extent, can and do influence voter behaviour. But it would be a mistake to assume that a government would automatically reap political dividends by merely distributing freebies seasonally. That would be tantamount to taking voters for granted and ignoring their more fundamental and legitimate longer concerns like improving the quality of life of their families and children.

For example, doubling old-age pensions during the 2019 elections did not sway the electorate massively in its favor; otherwise, it would have scored a higher percentage of votes than 37%. Now, with rising inflation, diminishing purchasing power, and growing indebtedness at both the national and household levels preoccupying the minds of the electorate, if the government decides to dish out more freebies, they will be welcome. However, it is unclear how much this will sway electoral preferences.

People are realizing that there are no free lunches and that, in the end, they will have to foot the bill through more or higher taxes and more sacrifices while scarce public funds are being mismanaged. They may also have to bear the social consequences of a breakdown in law and order or the proliferation of drugs, which freebies would not address. In this case, freebies could very well be inversely correlated with electoral dominance. Many Mauritians are now familiar with the electoral “mot d’ordre”: ‘Prend zot l’argent, mais pas vote zotte.‘

* Minister Padayachy’s Budget in the lead-up to the next elections will be presented today. The public’s perception of this last Budget will be crucial for the MSM-led government. What more can it offer, even if it requires printing more money, to help sway the electoral outcome?

After 10 years of being at the helm of the government and consistently presenting socially oriented budgets to reap political dividends, even if the government realizes that it is time to change course and reorient the economy towards more productive investments, reducing public debt, tackling inflation, and strengthening the value of the rupee against foreign currencies, I do not see Padayachy taking any risks that would jeopardize the political prospects of the MSM during the next elections. It will inevitably be more of the same accompanied by more “tap latab”.

This is the last Budget of Padayachy. So far, he has not been able to produce a grand strategy to propel Mauritius to a higher level of prosperity, nor has he been able to add any new revenue-generating or job-creating pillars. His track record on vital issues such as climate emergency, food security, and technological innovations has been far from impressive.

In light of the prevailing morose mood among a large portion of the population and the absence of the “feel-good” factor, coupled with the urgent need to steer the economy away from further irreparable damage, Padayachy will likely find himself in a catch-22 dilemma as his tenure as Minister of Finance draws to a close.

* In light of the recent election results in India and the factors influencing that outcome, there’s a possibility the government might reconsider its electoral strategy to achieve the desired results. Apart from the routine inauguration of infrastructural projects, it’s probable that Opposition leaders will face inquiries or further investigations by the CCID or the FCC. Do you believe such tactics will be effective?

Already political opponents are in the firing line of the institutions you have mentioned. Others are under the scrutiny of BIG Brother, courtesy of the NSS.

Similar manoeuvres were resorted to by the Central CID in India. According to BBC, NDA faced “accusations of stifling dissent, with leading opposition figures jailed on what they say are trumped-up charges”. Not only BJP suffered setbacks in many of its strongholds, but seven out of 10 Union ministers from the BJP who fought from UP lost their seats, and the list of the casualties includes such stalwarts like Smriti Irani from Amethi. Four other Union Ministers who retained their seats did so with reduced margins.

In the South African elections, similar charges of repression against political opponents were levelled at ANC. The ANC suffered severe losses with its vote share dipping to 40 percent, from 57% obtained in 2019.

We should also not forget that the Mauritian political culture is rooted in the spirit of fair play and the principle of “Morisien pas content dominere”. The writings are on the wall for those who are tempted to resort to repressive tactics. They should not be surprised at all by the boomerang effects of such tactics during and after elections.

* In what ways do you think the opposition parties might respond to the government’s tactics of offering short-term benefits to voters or to tarnish the image and reputation of Opposition leaders if it decides to go for the kill?

If we scrutinize the 10-year track record of the alliance in power, opposition parties have more than enough political ammunition to corner the government. Economic mismanagement has resulted in the declining purchasing power of voters, heavy indebtedness of both households and the Treasury, proliferation of drugs, various scandals, a drift towards autocracy, the capture of state institutions, the erosion of meritocracy, and the upsurge of cronyism, among other issues. Not that the government does not have some achievements to its credit, but the political liabilities weigh much heavier against it.

The opposition’s response should be well-articulated around a credible list of candidates, a people-centric electoral manifesto, responsible campaigning, leveraging social media, and staying connected to ground realities. It’s important to bear in mind that the exercise of power and its misuse or abuse generally attract voter sanction, as seen recently in India and South Africa.

* Xavier Duval has left mainstream Opposition alliance, and he has yet to publicly disclose any potential future alliance partner. What according to you will be Xavier’s ultimate move?

Xavier did a very good job as Leader of the Opposition, and his adept handling of the Speaker’s bullying tactics earned him a lot of public esteem. When he left the MSM government due to his strong disagreement with the Prosecution Commission Bill and its questionable motivations, he gained widespread public respect as a defender of democracy across the political spectrum.

The Financial Crime Commission (FCC) appears to be a revised version of the Prosecution Commission Bill, and there should be no illusion about its agenda. Some visible signs of its intentions are already emerging.

Xavier finds himself at a crucial crossroad in his political career. These are moments when difficult decisions must be made. Will he compromise his principles and align with the MSM, or will he adhere to them?

Politics should prioritize public interest. When politics deviates from this, personal interest takes precedence. Jim Collins, in his book “How the Mighty Fall,” outlines five reasons for failures, among which he highlights “the undisciplined pursuit of more.” But more in whose interest? To answer this question, Xavier must listen to his inner voice before making his ultimate move.

* Beyond economic concerns and social issues do you think there are other factors that may play a significant role in shaping the electoral outcome?

A multitude of factors will influence the choices of voters, extending beyond mere economic and social concerns. Democracy and freedom will hold significance, particularly among the younger generation. Families will ponder whether their children will have a better future in Mauritius. Concerns about elderly care and compassion will weigh heavily. Additionally, issues such as law and order, meritocracy, social justice, food security, and environmental emergencies will resonate with everyone.

There’s a spectrum of issues, ranging from core to peripheral, specific to cross-cutting, that will shape voter decisions. We should not underestimate the voters’ ability to make responsible choices that benefit the country and its people. Gone are the days when voters could be viewed as the fixed deposits of political parties.

* Governments, organizations, and communities that perform well often develop strategic plans and long-term visions to guide their actions and shape their future trajectory. Lately, however, it seems we’ve become overly preoccupied with determining the outcomes of upcoming elections. Do you believe the lack of focus on long-term planning and vision can indeed pose significant risks to both stability and development, or do you think we will survive regardless?

We cannot afford to leave our destinies to uncertainties. There must be a degree of continuity and sustainability regardless of changes in governments. Medium- and long-term strategic planning is not just an option; it is a vital necessity in today’s world.

In the past, there was a Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, which has since been scrapped. Over the past decade, has the government implemented an Economic Development strategy? Shouldn’t the protection of our biodiversity and the preservation of our national assets be our priorities? Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are being conducted without proper due diligence. Does this not amount to the criminal destruction of our scarce and vulnerable ecosystem?

There is an urgent need to integrate these disjointed pieces into a coherent whole that is responsive to current and emerging challenges. People should be able to connect with a clear and optimistic vision for the Republic of Mauritius after 56 years of independence. Just imagine if SSR and his team did not have a vision for post-independence Mauritius. That ethos of shaping the future of a strong, united nation forging ahead with confidence should be revitalized.

The upcoming elections should serve as a wake-up call for all Mauritians who believe in our common destiny as one people, one nation, striving for peace, justice, and shared prosperity through sustainable socio-economic development.

The political manifestos of parties vying for power in the upcoming elections will offer clear indications of how the future of the country will be managed and where voters will place their trust. This will be a defining moment for our democracy.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 7 June 2024