Can the BRICS nations build a New Foundation in the World without Mortar?
The importance of the BRICS nations as a totality should not be underestimated…On the other hand, its utter lack of clout is evident when one realizes that Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are minor players in the larger economic context
By Anil Madan
The BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa — in anagram order but not necessarily in order of importance, are holding their summit in South Africa. Reports suggest that both China and Russia would like to open the group to admit new members whereas Brazil, India, and South Africa are somewhat skeptical of such an approach.
The importance of the BRICS nations as a totality should not be underestimated because as a group, these nations make more than 25% of the global economy, and account for a little more than 40% of the world’s population.
On the other hand, the utter lack of clout of this organization is evident when one realizes that Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are minor players in the larger economic context. Certainly, Russia, with its vast energy resources, fertilizer exports, and immense grain production, has the potential to be an economic force but only if it embraces the rules of civilized conduct, a precondition for nations with a smattering of a moral compass to entertain allowing Russia’s unfettered access to world markets and the international financial system.
Whereas the desire of China and Russia to expand membership in the BRICS group is understandable, allowing Iran and Cuba to join risks creating a further rupture with the US for countries that value their relationship with Washington. Certainly, India, Brazil, and South Africa, at least to the point that they do not openly seek to antagonize the US, fall into this category.
Ever since Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine, China, India and South Africa, viewing their actions as reflecting their national self-interest, have pursued policy stances that to the US and Europe reflect turning a blind eye to their responsibility for moral leadership in the rules-based world order. The tug of war about admitting new members and establishing a BRICS bloc that is strong enough to undercut American dominance of the world’s economy and the economic and financial transactions infrastructure that undergird international trade and regulation, reflects this ongoing dissonance. Iran and Cuba remain under western sanctions and admission to the BRICS group is not going to undo those.
When one adds disparate approaches on other political and security issues, the mortar that would otherwise bind a cohesive group is missing. Adding more nations to the group is likely to exacerbate divisions rather than generate more cohesion.
Whereas President Xi thought that forming an alliance with Russia even as the Western world distanced itself from Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, his dalliance with the Russian dictator has not redounded to his benefit. There is a temptation to think that drawing Iran and Saudi Arabia into an anti-American vortex will benefit China and Russia. But India is hardly likely to be on board with such an approach. Whereas India is, and will for a long time, remain dependent on Russia for arms and military aircraft, it is engaging robustly with the US on technology transfer for fighter aircraft engines and is a member of the QUAD group of nations whose focus is on keeping China from dominating the Pacific. India has its own problems with China on its borders and these are not going to be erased by cheerleading against the US.
Ever since Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine, China, India and South Africa, viewing their actions as reflecting their national self-interest, have pursued policy stances that to the US and Europe reflect turning a blind eye to their responsibility for moral leadership in the rules-based world order. The tug of war about admitting new members and establishing a BRICS bloc that is strong enough to undercut American dominance of the world’s economy and the economic and financial transactions infrastructure that undergird international trade and regulation, reflects this ongoing dissonance. Iran and Cuba remain under western sanctions and admission to the BRICS group is not going to undo those.
When one adds disparate approaches on other political and security issues, the mortar that would otherwise bind a cohesive group is missing. Adding more nations to the group is likely to exacerbate divisions rather than generate more cohesion.
Whereas President Xi thought that forming an alliance with Russia even as the Western world distanced itself from Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, his dalliance with the Russian dictator has not redounded to his benefit. There is a temptation to think that drawing Iran and Saudi Arabia into an anti-American vortex will benefit China and Russia. But India is hardly likely to be on board with such an approach. Whereas India is, and will for a long time, remain dependent on Russia for arms and military aircraft, it is engaging robustly with the US on technology transfer for fighter aircraft engines and is a member of the QUAD group of nations whose focus is on keeping China from dominating the Pacific. India has its own problems with China on its borders and these are not going to be erased by cheerleading against the US.
US and Europe’s policies, discord and resentment
All that said, the US and Europe must recognize that their policies over the past two centuries have created much discord and resentment. Countries in Africa and Asia cannot be faulted for seeking alternatives to the US-Europe dominated world trade order. At the same time, the BRICS group has no alternative to the rules-based order that allows countries to trade securely and confidently with other nations with the assurance that the national security and territorial integrity of all nations are protected. China, with its aggressive approach in the Pacific Ocean and against India, and Russia with its invasion of Ukraine are clearly disqualified in that respect. It is difficult to imagine what the BRICS group can offer to the world on the security front and even more difficult to believe that India can endorse a Sino-Russian centric approach to world order.
The BRICS group will likely have more clout on the economic front. The New Development Bank, a multilateral development bank established by the BRICS countries to compete with and as an alternative to the IMF and World Bank, has funded infrastructure development in the BRICS countries and elsewhere, but has recently run into difficulty raising dollar funds to meet its debt obligations. As the Chinese and Indian economies grow, and as Russia one day emerges from its war with Ukraine and generates energy-based revenue, the BRICS countries could become a formidable financial force in the world. For now, that day is at a minimum, a decade away.
Against these lofty ambitions, are some reality checks. President Putin was unable to attend the BRICS summit in person since South Africa would have been obliged to honor an international warrant for his arrest on charges of crimes against humanity. From afar, he addressed the BRICS summit and railed against the West for provoking the war in Ukraine, engendering worldwide inflation, and even causing hunger by restricting Russian grain and fertilizer exports. In fostering the expression of these delusional views, the BRICS summit did itself little good.
President Xi Jinping, who has launched programs such as the Global Security Initiative and the Global Development Initiative that seek to place China at the center of the international order, said he supported the expansion of Brics “to make global governance more just and equitable.” Such an expanded grouping would also give China more clout as it squares off with the West.
Curiously, the Chinese president skipped a scheduled speech on Tuesday at the closing of the Brics Business Forum. China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao delivered President Xi’s prepared remarks. In an unexplained twist, Chinese state media and a Foreign Ministry official claimed that President Xi spoke at the forum. The prepared speech was laced with invective about “some countries” that are “not reconciled to losing their hegemony, and wantonly contain and suppress emerging market countries and developing countries.”
Meanwhile, China is facing its own economic problems and a potential implosion of its real estate and debt markets.
A major force in the world
The BRICS group certainly has potential for being a major force in the world in the decades to come. For example, Goldman Sachs projects that by 2050, GDP for the US will be $37.2 trillion, for China $41.9 trillion, and for India, $22.2 trillion. Consider that if China and India were to get to a rapprochement, their combined economies of $64+ trillion would dwarf the US as an economic force. On the other hand, a combination of India and the US would pit $59.4 trillion combined economic clout against China’s $42 trillion. As of now, the trend is for the US and India to cooperate more than it is for the BRICS group to forge an alliance against the US and the West.
Thirty years is a long time and with all respect to Goldman Sachs, the dynamics of China’s demographics with its aging population, of India’s burgeoning educated youth, and of America’s success or lack thereof in re-establishing a manufacturing economy, will shape how relative GDP numbers shake out. Let us not also forget that in thirty years, the way in which the world delivers energy for the engines of each country’s economy will likely have changed dramatically. Today’s projections may well be completely off base.
The chapters of geopolitical and economic history in these respects are yet to be written.
Cheerz…
Bwana
Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 25 August 2023
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