Duval Crosses the Rubicon

Editorial

What was long suspected has finally come to pass: Xavier Duval’s PMSD, with the nomination of Adrien Duval as Speaker in replacement of the controversial Sooroojdev Phookeer, has taken its first irreversible step towards joining forces with the MSM. This alliance is poised to contest the upcoming elections against the united front of the Labour Party, MMM, and the Nouveaux Démocrates.

For the PMSD, this was the logical and perhaps the only option left after being ousted, some will say ousting itself out, from the LP-MMM opposition alliance. The PMSD would like to believe this ouster had been orchestrated by Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Bérenger, each for their own strategic political reasons: Ramgoolam aimed to ensure a front bench that would represent a sociologically balanced composition, appealing to the LP electorate, while Bérenger sought to secure the MMM’s sole representation of minority interests in either a coalition with the Labour Party or alternatively with the MSM. Additionally, Bérenger aimed for a larger share of electoral tickets within the LP-MMM-MD alliance. That however does not appear to have been the feeling of a key PMSD parliamentary splinter group that stayed on as the Nouveaux Democrates. Be that as it may, a departure without an alternative plank in the offing would have been suicidal for the PMSD in our FPTP electoral system.

In joining forces with the MSM, the PMSD would surely seek to secure more favourable terms regarding electoral tickets, front bench presence, Cabinet positions, and a share of governmental power if an MSM-PMSD alliance were to emerge victorious in what promises to be a closely contested battle between the two major alliances in the upcoming elections. Pravind Jugnauth’s expectation from Xavier Duval is that the PMSD will contribute significantly to winning a number of seats in urban constituencies, which would complement the more assured seats in rural constituencies (Nos. 4 to 14) needed to form the next government.

The extent to which the PMSD will deliver on these promises remains uncertain. Nevertheless, Pravind Jugnauth views Duval’s alignment as a strategic move that provides the MSM with a dual insurance policy for securing victory in the next elections. What remains less recognized is the covert yet influential support that the MSM garners from Jocelyn Grégoire, a Catholic priest with considerable sway among the working-class Creole community — a support base potentially larger and more influential than that of the PMSD and the Duvals. Grégoire played a pivotal role in securing victories for the MSM in both 2014 and 2019, despite allegations of electoral malpractice tarnishing the latter election.

As for the PMSD, managing its transition from four years of robust opposition against the autocratic and repressive policies of the MSM-led government presents a formidable challenge. Their strategic pivot towards the MSM, seen as a “retournement de veste,” raises questions about their credibility and consistency in the eyes of the electorate. It must be borne in mind that the urban electorate have been deprived of their democratic rights for almost ten years. Cozzying up to those he slammed regularly over four years as Leader of the Opposition, revealing many misdemeanours and malpractices, may be a bridge too far even for large parts of his electorate. However, for Xavier Duval, the immediate concern may lie in ensuring the PMSD’s continued relevance in Mauritius’ political landscape and securing a future for his political legacy and political heirs.

This unfolding scenario underscores a high-stakes power game where political leaders and their parties strategize to gain influence and control over the electorate, ultimately aiming to secure the majority needed to win elections. Playing one’s cards adeptly in such power games demands a blend of strategic acumen, the ability to manage complexities inherent in a multi-racial and multi-religious society like Mauritius, and above all, humility. Whether the PMSD’s alignment with the MSM-led alliance in 2024 will replicate the conditions of 2014 remains to be seen. The outcome will hinge significantly on the opposition’s strategic response to these familiar yet evolving circumstances.

If the noisy showdown around the selection of Adrien Duval as Speaker of the National Assembly is anything to go by, the country cannot afford a prolongation of higher echelon political survival jockeying. General elections that will be watched closely by many international observers and capitals, should not be delayed.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 19 July 2024