Israel and Gaza after the Ceasefire. What’s next?

Breakfast with Bwana

By Anil Madan

The UN reports that 90% of Gaza residents have been displaced and forced to move repeatedly since the October 7 attack by Hamas in Israel. As well, some 60% of buildings including schools and hospitals, and 92% of homes have been damaged or destroyed.

Almost exactly one year before the end of President Biden’s term as President, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made clear to the Israeli government that Palestinians must be allowed to return to their homes in Gaza “as soon as conditions allow” and must not be displaced from the strip, the top US diplomat said Tuesday.

Just one week after his inauguration, President Donald Trump revealed that he broached the idea with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, about moving more than one million Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan and Egypt. Trump’s idea apparently involves constructing temporary housing for the Gazans, though he acknowledged it could become long-term. He disclosed that he asked the King to take in more Palestinians. “I said to him that I’d love you to take on more, because I’m looking at the whole Gaza Strip right now and it’s a mess, it’s a real mess.”

At first blush, it might appear that Trump is suggesting that Gazans need to be housed temporarily while their homes are rebuilt for their eventual return. But this is not entirely clear. Trump, adverted to the centuries-long conflicts in the region, and added: “You’re talking about a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing. I don’t know, something has to happen, but it’s literally a demolition site right now. Almost everything’s demolished, and people are dying there, so I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing in a different location where I think they could maybe live in peace for a change.”

The idea that Gazans might live in peace away from Gaza certainly suggests an end to any notion of a two-state solution that might include Gaza.

Jordan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi dismissed the idea, affirming Jordan’s commitment to “ensuring that Palestinians remain on their land.” He emphasized, “Our refusal of displacement is a steadfast position that will not change. Jordan is for Jordanians, and Palestine is for Palestinians.”

Likewise, Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected displacement of Palestinians through forced eviction. The ministry’s statement went on to state: “Such actions threaten stability, risk extending the conflict further in the region, and undermine opportunities for peace and coexistence.”

Notably, Ayman Safadi reiterated Jordan’s “firm and unchanging” position favouring a two-state solution and the Egyptian Foreign Ministry appealed to the international community to support efforts toward achieving a two-state solution.

So, what exactly is Trump up to? It is difficult to draw firm conclusions, but CNN reports that an Israeli analyst cited Israeli officials and reported Trump’s move was “not a slip of the tongue but part of a much broader move than it seems, coordinated with Israel.” CNN claims that a second source confirmed the reporting but gave no further details.

The logistics of reconstructing Gaza are formidable. Last week, I exchanged messages with an engineer about the Herculean task of reconstructing the thousands of buildings that were destroyed by wildfires in Los Angeles. In one message he wrote that there are no landfills near Malibu big enough to handle the debris that has to be removed. He expects that the Army Corps of Engineers will be handling most of the debris removal when a suitable landfill can be found. He estimates that rebuilding will take 15-30 years.

Think about the logistics involved in rebuilding Gaza. There is, of course, the problem of debris removal. But what of the almost 2 million people who live there? Will they be forced to live in a construction site or does Trump’s idea of temporary housing have merit. Or will “temporary” housing just become a permanent condition, with Gazans displaced to Jordan and Egypt? Will Israel be content to leave the reconstruction unsupervised, or will it want to ensure that new tunnels and hidden missile launch sites, factories, and ammunition depots are not being constructed?  And if Hamas does not cooperate, will Israel allow reconstruction at all?

Putting all that aside, there is the question of how building materials will be shipped to Gaza. Who is going to organize and coordinate the supply chains? It appears that with the fall of its Syrian proxies, Iran is now out of the picture in terms of its ability to send supplies to Gaza.

Who will fund the reconstruction of Gaza? It seems inevitable that the Arab nations will make demands on Israel to restore what it has destroyed. The rich oil nations, UAE and Saudi Arabia may be willing to fund reconstruction, but surely, they will insist on a two-state solution. Will their influence help rein in Hamas?

There are more questions than answers.

Not to be overlooked are questions arising from the October 7 attack by Hamas and Israel’s ongoing and future response. The ceasefire agreements that Israel has reached with both Hezbollah and Hamas, are cause for hope, but experience tells us that peace, even between Arabs, in the Middle East is often fragile. Peace between Arabs and Israel is always fraught.

There are forces, on both sides, that would rather see hostilities continue than peace to break out. Arabs, notably Hamas and Hezbollah oppose peace with Israel for strategic and ideological reasons and the same is true of certain Israeli factions. The Iranian Ayatollahs have an ideological hatred of Israel and whereas they might have been somewhat defanged, it is not clear how much their ability to fund proxies has been diminished.

Some of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners have resolutely opposed the cease-fire. Some have threatened to sabotage the coalition if the war is not restarted. If Trump is serious about his insistence that he will not tolerate an ongoing war, Netanyahu has a dilemma. And his political survival may depend on how he responds.

Trump’s grandiose plans seem to include peace among Israel and the Arabs and a multibillion-dollar defense and technology deal among Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This, in turn, should put enormous pressure on Iran and perhaps allow Trump to reach a deal with the Ayatollahs on its nuclear program.

Those plans, of course, conflict with pressure from the Israeli public for the government’s focus to be unrelentingly on the release of all the remaining hostages.

It has been reported that Trump put pressure on Netanyahu to agree on the cease fire deal. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Amos Harel notes that Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Yoel Smotrich – both Israeli far-right politicians – have said they would rejoin the coalition if Netanyahu halts the deal’s implementation and resumes the war.

There is widespread concern among Gazans that even a “temporary” absence from Gaza will become permanent and they will lose their right to return. Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have openly supported the migration of Gazan residents to other countries. Last month, Smotrich told Israeli media that the removal of around 90% of Palestinians from the area would make Israel safer.

The US State Department called these comments “inflammatory and irresponsible.” Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir live in West Bank settlements.

Netanyahu has distanced himself from his ministers’ statements, but it is not clear whether he will view Trump’s call as giving him cover to be more supportive of the far-right elements of his cabinet.

Such a step by Netanyahu would be a direct challenge to Trump’s vision and likely put an end to any deal with the Saudis. On the one hand, one might expect Netanyahu to stick with Trump on this. The Israeli public appears to favour no more war so long as all the hostages are not free, if recent polls are to be believed. On the other hand, an Israeli journalist Amir Tibon has stated: “Netanyahu is deceiving Trump and preparing to sabotage the cease-fire agreement.”

As the ceasefire has taken hold in Gaza, Hamas troops have reappeared. So, Israel has not destroyed Hamas. It remains to be seen if there is any hope of negotiating a peaceful transition to the rebuilding of Gaza and the resettlement of its population while rebuilding is going on.

Going forward, it is likely that both Hamas and Israel will use any period of relative calm and no hostilities to regroup, resupply, and rearm. Perhaps a massive injection of aid from the Saudis and Emiratis will provide incentive for Hamas and the Gazans to seek a life of peace. How to make Gaza, or indeed the West Bank, part of a two-state solution remains the unanswered question.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 31 January 2025