Losing the Plot – Israel, America, Ukraine

Other countries are failing, but here are the 3 worst nightmares

By Anil Madan

Five days after Hamas carried out its deadly attack on Israeli civilians, leaving some 1,200 dead and 200+ kidnapped as hostages, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said:

“We condemn the terrorists, and we say very clearly, Israel has the right under international law to defend its citizens against such acts of barbarism.”

“The safety in Israel and for Israel must be restored, and that is why Israel must have the capacity to defend itself. At the moment there is only one place for Germany, the place, side by side with Israel. This is what we mean when we say the security of Israel is Germany’s raison d’être.”

Well, perhaps he said “raison d’état” as has been reported, but the point remains.

How things have changed.

On the same October day, I wrote that Hamas had committed a horrific mistake. But I foresaw that Netanyahu would unleash a campaign of carpet bombing and I warned that Israel would be accused of genocide.

What we have seen is a colossal mistake by Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition in squandering the high moral ground that Israel has always claimed. The tragedy is that this was predictable and predicted.

Ever since the Holocaust, the Jewish people in Israel and the Jewish diaspora, have recognized their involuntary role as victims of the world’s greatest crime against humanity and, at the same time, have seen the State of Israel as the beacon of hope, the Superpower, if you will, that promises “NEVER AGAIN.”

Aside from their fortitude in bearing the burden of the Holocaust, the wars of 1948, 1967, 1973, and the ongoing existential threats, there is the underlying decency of the Jewish people, their contributions in education, music, literature, science, medicine, art, technology, their charity, and so forth. To be sure, Israel has been cast as the oppressor and the occupier, but it has always chosen to declare its armed forces as holding the high moral ground.

Sadly, much of this has been put on tilt as Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners have lost the plot.

Yes, I understand that Hamas had to be destroyed. Yes, I understand that Hamas uses the civilian population as human shields. On the other hand, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was but one cabinet member or senior official who called for Palestinians to be “voluntarily encouraged to leave” the Gaza Strip. There have been similar tone-deaf statements from other cabinet ministers with nary a reprimand or squawk of protest from Netanyahu.

A new tide has come in

We have seen the tide of sympathy and understanding for Israel’s need to preserve its security go out and a new tide come in. But this time, the tables have been turned.

Israel’s airstrikes and unrelenting bombing of Gaza, its infrastructure, its hospitals, its civilians, its children, and the humanitarian disaster of displacement, disease, and near famine caused by restricting the flow of food and water… well, what is there to say?

President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken have been reduced to pleading with Netanyahu not to launch an assault on Rafah. Biden has finally started to call for a ceasefire, not just a pause in the bombing. Blinken has started to call for a lasting peace as he pleads with Hamas to accept Israel’s offer which he calls “generous.” Even so, Netanyahu, in a defiant, almost petulant promise, vows to attack Rafah anyway.

Meanwhile, Hamas seems content to use the hostages as negotiating leverage, offering to release 33 in exchange for a prolonged ceasefire.

Iran launched a direct attack on Israel last month. Make no mistake. Although it was unsuccessful and largely repelled by American, British, and Jordanian forces, this Iranian attack was a game-changer. It cost an estimated $550 million to repel. How many such attacks can Israel withstand without American and British support? How much is it clear that Israel needs the goodwill of its Arab neighbors to counter the Iranian threat?

And, not to be missed, is that Iran has shown its willingness to carry out its longstanding threat of destroying Israel. As Iran progresses towards acquiring nuclear weapons, the danger is palpable.

It is surprising that sentiment among the Saudis, Emiratis, Egyptians, and Jordanians hasn’t turned solidly against Israel. Chalk that up to Iran’s unrelenting campaign to destroy Israel and dominate its Arab neighbours. Israel cannot afford to lose the trust of its Arab neighbours.

The recent demonstrations on American college campuses have shown how much Bibi and his right-wing nutcases have caused Israel to lose the plot.

The long-range stakes for Israel are high. It may not be possible, on this go around, to defuse Hamas’ capacity to wreak terrorism on Israeli civilians. But surely, the indiscriminate bombing of Gaza’s civilians was never going to accomplish that goal. I said as much back in October and again recently. Why doesn’t Bibi see this? Why doesn’t he see that dealing with the Iranian threat is the most pressing concern?

Destroying America

Meanwhile, the US is heading full-tilt into a presidential election with the Republican Party proffering as its champion a former President who refused to accept that he had lost — nay, been soundly thrashed in — the last election, and tried to stage a coup, in an attempt to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. To this day, he doubles down on the BIG LIE, the essential untruth of his false persona.

And yet, the powers that be among the Republicans seem mesmerized by him, to adore him, and to express their undying support for this man who is the antithesis of everything that is noble about America.

We have seen that former Senate Majority Leader McConnell declared at the conclusion of the Trump’s second impeachment trial that he was morally responsible for the attempted insurrection, but nevertheless vote to acquit. And now, McConnell has declared his support for Trump.

We have seen John Sununu, the Governor of New Hampshire, who supported Nikki Haley, now declare that he will vote for Trump.

We have seen former Attorney General William Barr announce his support for Trump, the thesis being that in his mind, the Democrats are a greater danger to democracy than the man who expressly threatens to act like a dictator on day one and destroy the government as we know it.

We have a Supreme Court that seriously entertains argument on the proposition that the President who is charged under the Constitution with seeing that the laws are faithfully executed, cannot be held accountable if he commits criminal acts in the discharge of his duties.

America too has lost the plot.

Europe’s existential threat

And finally, there is Ukraine. It is easy to point the finger at the inexcusable delay by the Republican controlled House of Representatives to approve aid for Ukraine’s war effort as the proximate cause of Ukraine’s dire straits on the battlefields. But, as I wrote back in 2022, it was by no means clear that leaving Ukraine to defend itself was a sensible road to victory. I predicted then that Ukraine would face shortages of arms and military supplies, as well as of men.

What I did not foresee was that just as Russians fled their country to avoid conscription, so would Ukrainians.

In November 2023, BBC Eye reported that after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving the country unless they had an exemption. But BBC Eye established that 19,740 Ukrainian men illegally crossed into neighbouring countries from within a month of Russia’s attack in February 2022, to the end of August 2023.

Ukraine reported that the majority – 14,313 – were caught attempting to walk or swim across the border, and the remaining 6,800 tried to use fraudulently obtained official paperwork stating exemptions.

More recently, even as Ukraine started to receive much needed military supplies from the US, what has become starkly clear is that it needs troops. Ukraine has lost tens of thousands of its soldiers as they have been killed or wounded over two years of war.

Last month, Ukraine lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 to add more soldiers. Some Ukrainian politicians have criticized this move as one that will potentially lead to the loss of a generation of its citizens.

In addition, the Ukrainian government has moved to deny consular services to Ukrainians overseas. This means that men aged 18-60 can’t renew their passports unless they return to Ukraine. Whether this will force them back home and thus subject to conscription, or merely leave them seeking asylum elsewhere remains to be seen.

It seems that Ukraine too may well have lost the plot. The only hope is that European countries will see it in their interest to aid Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Is this an existential threat to Europe? Who knows? The risk of languishing in inaction while trying to ascertain the answer is itself an existential one.

Europe may well have lost the plot.

There are other countries that have lost the plot in ways small and large. But I’ll stop with the three major nightmare scenarios we face.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 3 May 2024