Municipals – Triangular Electoral Contest?

Editorial

As we surmised last week, talk and speculation about a National Unity Government (NUG) was given short shrift by all Opposition leaders, looking and smelling of a totally unappetizing red herring which seems to have petered out and backfired on spin masters who tried to make some hay from an innocent picture of cordial exchanges between the Labour Party (LP) and MSM leaders in the settings of the Indian High Commission’s commemoration of India’s Independence Day.

That the MSM leader and his advisers needed to steer the conversation away from hot topics and controversies on a variety of fronts has not gone unnoticed: the Angus Road saga; the refusal of ex-Minister Yogida Sawmynaden and STC acolytes to give their ADN samples to help police inquiries that might have put them in the clear has been poorly perceived; the way the Police has been conducting its investigations into the murder of MSM activist Soopramanien Kistnen, the reduction of the National Assembly into what looks like a partisan blaring house under the current Speakership, amongst other issues, there was every reason for a diversionary tactic from the MSM headquarters.

That red herring aside, there is still the question then of how the Opposition intends to tackle the upcoming municipals, already postponed and presumed to be held before the end of the year or at latest some time early next year. In our socio-political context, the urban electorate in the four municipal townships and in the capital City of Port Louis, are said to be more sensitive to issues of morality and good governance in the public sphere, recoiling somewhat at corruption, drug infiltration, opacity in governance, crony capitalism, the diversion of public funds and the capture of nominally independent institutions.

The government, with daily help from the national TV carrier, is busy with urban inaugurations and catch-up projects, giving credence to the prospect of early elections, which the MMM and Alliance de l’Espoir leader Paul Berenger seems also to favour in a recent declaration. That may be play-acting or upping the ante in negotiations that would be needed with the LP to constitute a united Opposition front, which from the latter’s point of view should acknowledge the leadership role of the LP, and its leader Navin Ramgoolam, with a substantial grassroots electorate in urban areas. An early option for municipals would clearly call for a hastened pace of discussions and negotiations which currently do not seem to be happening.

If an early triangular electoral contest is favoured by Paul Berenger, despite the experience of the triangular 2019 general elections, what then might be the strategy and rationale behind such calculations particularly at a time when his own party has to face up to upcoming generational change of guards? Would he thereby hope to drown out in the Alliance de l’Espoir the actual troop strength of his party that has lost many of its cadres to government poaching? Or does he prefer the possibility of shared spoils in a triangular fight rather than the immense psychological hurdle of abandoning, probably for good, his traditional leadership role in Opposition? It is no disrespect for his formidable career that this option cannot be overlooked as he himself had acknowledged some time back.

Some might guess that he may simply overplayed and feels bound by his overtures to his favoured PM candidate Nando Bodha, fresh from the MSM stables and whose autonomous pulling traction remains unknown. Others that a low political cost triangular in urban areas might hand him and his Espoir colleagues a bargaining level for the general elections in 2024. A more intriguing perspective is that the venerable MMM party leader, abandoned by a large fraction of his traditional base in 2014 and in the by-election of 2017, would not be averse to demonstrating to what remains of that electoral base the necessity of a united front in 2024, even at the cost of disappointing results in municipals through a triangular fight.

But these can only be speculations and crystal-ball gazing as the events unfold. Whatever scenarios and back-up plans the major party leaders are toying with, they will be expected to hold their cards close to the chest when the stakes are already so high, surprisingly after less than two years in office of the MSM.

* Published in print edition on 24 August 2021