“Once Parliament is dissolved, the political cauldron will heat up and the serious matters will then start”

Interview: Kugan Parapen, Economist and Member of Resistans ek Alternativ

* ‘Very few sitting Prime Ministers have seen their mandates out until the very last day. We see this positioning as a sign of weakness for the incumbent’

* “Regime change should not mean more of the same as in the past”

In the lead-up to the next general elections in Mauritius, the political landscape is rife with strategic maneuvering and coalition-building efforts. One of the key players in this evolving narrative is Rezistans ek Alternativ (ReA), a party advocating for a unified opposition front to challenge the ruling regime. To gain insight into the current state of these crucial discussions, the Mauritius Times speaks with Kugan Parapen, an economist and member of ReA. In this interview, Kugan Parapen provides an in-depth assessment of the ongoing negotiations with the Labour Party and the MMM, reflects on the historical and economic context influencing these talks, and shares ReA’s vision for future political and economic reforms.

Mauritius Times: How does Rezistans ek Alternativ (ReA) assess the progress of the discussions with the Labour Party and MMM in the context of the upcoming general elections?

Kugan Parapen: It is widely known that ReA has long advocated for a unification of opposition forces for the forthcoming general elections. Indeed, we regularly met with major parliamentary and extra parliamentary parties over the last two years to drive home the desirability and necessity of a unified front to defeat the MSM regime. We are of the view that the stakes could not be any higher in 2024 – the very foundation of our democracy is on the line.

While most opposition parties were very receptive to our plea in private, few were publicly vocal about the need to form a grand alliance to overcome the shortcomings of our First Past The Post electoral system. As recently as 2019, we witnessed firsthand the inherent democratic vulnerabilities of the Westminsterian model in a multi-cornered electoral contest – that is, an electoral outcome which bestows political supremacy to a minority party.

So, when the leader of the Labour Party reached out to ReA earlier this year to discuss the possibility of an electoral arrangement with the Labour Party and the MMM, ReA agreed to hold discussions with them as this was in line with the party’s desire to unify opposition forces ahead of the next general elections. Over the last few weeks, ReA has had several meetings with the leaders of the Labour Party and the MMM. While the discussions have evolved over the meetings, there are still some important issues which are pending as we speak.

We are aware that there is a strong desire within the population for these talks to be concluded as quickly as possible but then again, some issues are more sensitive than others and are unfortunately more time-consuming. That said, we remain hopeful that these can be resolved soon.  

* People matter, and your interlocutors also play a significant role in the workability of an alliance. What is your assessment of the motivations of the LP and MMM leaders, and their willingness to include ReA in the Opposition alliance?

Both the Labour Party and the MMM have strong historical ties with labour struggles. While this part of their history is somewhat forgotten by many of the younger generations nowadays, we feel that this has influenced their decision to hold talks with Rezistans ek Alternativ. Both Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Berenger have alluded to this shared DNA as being one of the reasons why they are considering forming an alliance with Rezistans ek Alternativ.

Obviously, with the departure of the PMSD from the then parliamentary opposition alliance to seemingly cross the floor to the government’s side, this has created a vacuum. We are also aware that influential groups within the respective parties, especially the progressives and the youth, have rooted for a rapprochement with ReA. Last but not least, anyone with an iota of objectivity will admit that ReA has been at the forefront of many political struggles over recent years and has influenced the political bearing in one way or the other.

* ReA has advocated for issues that are not necessarily, or only partly, supported by both the LP and the MMM, which have, over the years, adopted a more pragmatic approach to politics. Working together to bring about positive change will require compromises. But ultimately, it will be the ‘rapport de forces’ within the alliance that decides whether changes will occur or not. You must have taken that into account, haven’t you?

First and foremost, we need to point out that if any alliance is concluded, ReA will be a minority partner (with a maximum of three candidates). Members of the party are not naive, neither should the population. However, it is good to remember Dalia Lama’s advice in this context: “If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito.”

ReA will not be the driving force of a new government. However, what we lack in terms of numbers, we intend to make up in terms of ideas, proposals and advocacies. And we are confident that some MPs within the ranks of the other parties can stand for the greater good when required. Will it be enough? We have to make sure it will be when it matters most.

But as you rightly pointed out, ReA advocates for issues that are not necessarily mainstream at this point in time in our society. We are often frustrated that these issues are not picked up by the mainstream media or if they are, they are distorted in such a way that they fail to appeal to a wider audience, much to the satisfaction of the capitalist power brokers who own most of the so-called free press.

That frustration is certainly shared by the left in Mauritius. Do we remember when was the last time leftists had a voice of their own in parliament? There are so many issues that go under the radar owing to a lack of representation in parliament. This is also one of the reasons why we need ReA in parliament.

* If the Opposition were to find itself in government after the next elections, what would ReA like to see accomplished – in terms of doable and achievable goals – in the immediate and medium term?

We are adamant that a regime change should not equate with what we have often witnessed in the past – that is more of the same. The main reasons ReA has sought a grand alliance of the opposition are twofold: first, the urgency and necessity of ousting Jugnauth and his clan from power; and second, equally important, the need to bring about real change in Mauritian society.

ReA has dedicated a large part of its interactions with the leaders of the Labour Party and the MMM to go over the proposals that ReA would like to bring to the table. In a nutshell, we identified three major layers that we would like addressed, namely democratic/constitutional reforms, enhancement of labour rights, and finally environmental protection.

With respect to the strengthening of our democracy, we have proposed to introduce the right to recall an MP in between two elections as a major step forward for our society. Such a measure must be well thought of in order to discourage frivolous and partisan attempts to revoke MPs but should be practical enough to make it feasible to really revoke an MP who has grossly erred in his/her duties as a representative of the people. Can we imagine the impact this would have on the conduct of MPs if they knew they could be revoked by their electorate in-between elections?

Additionally, ReA has long advocated for the right for all Mauritians to stand as candidates at general elections on the basis of their citizenship alone, without having to mandatorily declare their ethnic belonging. Obviously, electoral reform is also a necessity including the introduction of a proportional system with a reasonable threshold for eligibility.

With respect to labour rights, we have witnessed a lot of issues in recent years when it comes to the disparity between private sector employees and public sector ones in times of extreme climatic conditions. ReA proposes to streamline the process so that the disparity is eliminated but more so ensure that the safety of all employees is paramount to all considerations. Actually, with climate change, there needs to be an in-depth rethink about how our economy adapts to such disruptions. The protection of the environment is also central to ReA’s agenda and the inclusion of nature’s rights in the Constitution would be a game changer with respect to ensuring a sustainable socio-economic model.

Lastly and most importantly, reshaping our economic model is vital. The population has been made worse off under the MSM regime and addressing fundamental and structural economic issues has to be a priority. We need to create an economic model that works towards the betterment of the economic wellbeing of Mauritians and there are some vital decisions to be taken at this level. New pillars of the economy need to be developed while addressing the imbalance between exports and imports is a priority.

 * The concept of renewing the political class and introducing innovative ideas (“renouvellement de la classe politique et des idées”) has been widely discussed in intellectual circles locally. Despite this, the electorate has consistently chosen to support the traditional parties. Does this indicate that the country may not yet be ready for such renewal?

The “renouvellement de la classe politique” has been a much-debated topic and it is true that the country has not witnessed significant progress on this issue. As argued previously, our electoral system favours the bipolarisation of the political spectrum and essentially the dominance of traditional mainstream parties. If we assess the situation in other countries which use the FPTP electoral model, we can see that the Mauritian syndrome is not an isolated case. In the UK, the Labour Party and the Torries have dominated proceedings for as long as one can remember. In India, the BJP and Congress have remained the main political protagonists over time. So maybe we should be referring to a FPTP syndrome instead.

While ReA is not advocating for the demise of the FPTP model as such, we see a strong case to adjust the system to favour more diverse representation. Hence the need to introduce a proportional representation reform to supplement the existing electoral model and ensure adequate representation of all voices within parliament.

 * Like the mainstream parties, the electorate today tends to be pragmatic, focusing more on their well-being, living conditions, and material needs rather than on ideological considerations. What impact do you think the freebies and ‘social welfare’ policies, as characterized by the Privy Council in its judgment in the Dayal v Jugnauth case, will have on this electorate?

It is rather unfortunate that the schedule of elections and political events—can significantly influence the formulation and implementation of public policy, as politicians often prioritize policies that will gain them electoral support or address immediate concerns to appeal to voters. This influence is observed not just locally but it has been a feature of politics worldwide.

Politicians in power tend to focus on reelection as from mid-mandate rather than fulfilling a progressive socio-economic agenda. Freebies and social welfare policies have featured prominently in the months leading to general elections in Mauritius but yet the empirical data does not suggest that such largesses necessarily have a major impact on the electoral outcome, especially in the case of unpopular governments.

From living memory, 1995, 2000, 2014 are prime examples of election years where unpopularity superseded the ‘generosity’ of the then ruling government. There is a strong case that 2024 will be the same.

* How sustainable is this approach — this culture of freebies that has emerged in recent years, with successive governments turning it into a form of political auction to secure electoral support — before it begins to harm the economy?

In economics, it is well known that there is no such thing as a free lunch. It is essentially a zero-sum game, where actions inevitably have consequences. However, the complexity of economics can make these consequences less perceptible to the general population, particularly to those who are not well-versed in economic matters.

An important case study is Liz Truss’s brief tenure at Downing Street. Elected by her party to replace Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the UK, she was forced to resign within 50 days. The primary reason was that her Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented an unfunded budget – that is one that lacks a clear or adequate plan for how its proposed expenditures will be financed – to Parliament. This budget raised alarm bells in financial markets and resulted in a significant increase in the UK’s financing costs (the expenses incurred by the UK government when it borrows money).

Do you think the tandem Jugnauth/Padayachy would have lasted more than 50 days in the UK? We doubt it.

* When you see the Prime Minister acting decisively and consistently to secure the re-election of his MSM-led alliance, and on the other hand, an opposition alliance still looking for its footing, what does this situation suggest about the likely outcome of the next elections?

We would not read too much into this. Once Parliament is dissolved, the political cauldron will heat up and the serious matters will then start. We are more perplexed about the reluctance of the Prime Minister to call for general elections ahead of schedule. Very few sitting Prime Ministers have seen their mandates out until the very last day. We see this positioning as a sign of weakness for the incumbent.

The by-election in constituency number 10 will be a litmus test – if ever Jugnauth decides to hold this by-election, it will be a clear sign that the days of his regime are numbered. When you factor in the rapprochement with the PMSD, the strategy seems to suggest that the government would rather have more time on their hands than less as they are aware that it will take some time for a synergy, if any, to emerge from this cumbersome electoral arrangement.

Also, the backtracking on Phokeer as speaker of the house and the ousting of Lee Shim from the Champs de Mars suggest that the MSM house is on fire. Will they be able to put out the fire?

* Regardless of the outcome of the next elections, would you, as an economist, say that the incoming government might face a challenging economic situation partly due to the current government’s spending in the lead-up to the elections?

I have no illusion about the abysmal economic legacy that Padayachy will leave behind. He will go down in history as one of the worst Finance Ministers that this country has known. And I am pretty sure that there are many skeletons lying around in the Ministry of Finance. Re-engineering the economy from this point will be daunting, but it is an uphill task that must be completed.

Generally speaking, public spending under the MSM regime has been off the charts. While the pandemic justified running huge budget deficits at the time, the same was not required in more recent years. If anything, there was actually a case to reverse the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to curb inflationary pressures. In hindsight, it is crystal clear that Jugnauth planned all along to monetise the reserves of the central bank to finance his electoral promises from 2019. All along, ReA said that these promises were unfunded and so it proved to be.

Padayachy tore out the old inflation trick from his playbook to pave the way for increased nominal social benefits. By pursuing inflationary policies, Padayachy and Seegoolam (the inflation brothers) engineered a widespread impoverishment of the population to create an illusion of prosperity. The illusion did not last long, alas, for them.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 6 September 2024