Storm Clouds Ahead: Global Tensions, Local Challenges

Editorial

The intensive two-day visit of Indian PM Modi as guest of honour to our National Day celebrations, was undoubtedly pregnant with significant moments ranging from the spiritual to the more mundane. The obvious chemistry between our political leaders, including the President, who hosted the State banquet and had the privilege of conferring PM Modi with Mauritius’ highest distinction, the Grand Commander of the Star and Key of the Indian Ocean, seemed to click and give credence to the birth of a new era of strategic partnership, a Maha Sagar as coined by the Indian PM.

In 2015, on his last official visit, Narendra Modi was still freshly elected as India’s PM and so was SAJ, and both had numerous matters on their plate, which may explain the rather low-key event which left little lasting memories beyond the MOU towards infrastructure development on Agalega as part of the Indian PM’s SAGAR initiative towards taking our relations to a budding strategic partnership.

10 years down the road in 2025, PM Modi is a sophisticated world statesman, ably helped by his astute and smart Minister of External Affairs Dr S. Jaishankar, India is on course to be the world’s third largest economy and is undisputedly a naval/military power with thousands of miles of coastline on the Ocean we share and which is the object of much interest by many world powers.

The multi-polar world we live in is far more turbulent, where competition and cooperation have to constantly navigate choppy waters, the more so with President Donald J. Trump breathing fire and fury onto every conceivable Western ally and partner of the US including Canada, Europe and BRICS. His unilaterally decided and declared tariff wars have already sent New York stock markets into a nose-dive, losing trillions in dollar values in the past couple of weeks. As Canada, Mexico, the EU and China announce retaliatory tariffs and other strong counter-measures, an isolationist Trump, even under growing pressure of his nervous Wall Street billionaire friends, may have difficulties backing down without considerable egg on his face. There are real fears of a global economic recession, nobody could have predicted or wanted, except perhaps Vladimir Putin.

We need to remind ourselves that the Chagos deal concerning retrocession of our sovereignty looks to be still on the table after the Trump-Starmer meeting at the White House, but yet unsigned with the request for a US observer seat at our final negotiations with the UK. With the US administration running to the multiple fronts President Trump opens every week, it is doubtful if our best negotiators can say for certain when the clouds of uncertainty will settle down and the Chagos deal closed. Yet it is vitally important for the UK and Mauritius to put this issue behind us and look forward to a new era of cooperation for the developmental challenges ahead of us are both broad and deep.

As for fears of a global recession, these may yet be averted by Trump’s billionaire donor club or the GOP’s prospects in the upcoming midterm elections. However, jitters in Europe could have obvious repercussions on trade, as well as on our manufacturing and tourism industries — or even MK — all of which are still tottering on the post-Covid slope of recovery. Depleted reserves across agencies like STC, CEB, and CWA, low resilience at the Bank of Mauritius, a tenuous relationship with Moody’s, billions in unpaid bills (including metro light rail and SADC contributions), and a legacy of towering debt hardly leave us in good stead for any potential stormy weather ahead — or even for rainy days, it seems, when an hour of heavy rain turns some towns into water-skiing stations.

Where did the billions go to? ask irate citizens demanding greater and faster accountability. Why have the MCIT, CCID and FCC not recruited dozens of investigators (some may be retired, others foreign sourced) to help handle the hundreds of files sleeping in dusty drawers? If government claims mafiosos were at the helm for years, the population is likely to ask pertinent questions. Where are enquiries about the shady deals at BoM and the infamous MIC, created to plug budget deficits, help key operators from going bust but also used to dole out billions in a frenzied splash to family, friends and cronies? Our investigative agencies are surely best placed to balance the need for greater transparency on the progress of enquiries with the necessity to protect the latter, but some fortnightly briefing by a central communicator about key progress elements would not be amiss.

After the intense flurry of activity around our National day celebrations and PM Modi’s visit, government will certainly (or should) have its hands full with the lack of nominations at dozens of parastatals and agencies, including qualified chairmen and board members. Four months after taking office, this can look slow, even if one understands the need for some caution to avoid misfits. A few weeks down the road after that will come the municipal elections, long disregarded and postponed by the MSM and its allies. While the Alliance du Changement faces little risk of an upset given the current state of Opposition parties and figures — still reeling and on the ropes — candidate selection within its four-party alliance and the demands of campaigning will require significant time and resources. However, this does mean the agenda may become overly political in the coming weeks. Hopefully, though, some departments will still manage to get quiet work done on the economic planning front.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 14 March 2025