The Danger of Not Heeding Warnings

When we start treating warnings as just another fact, or another item of “Breaking News!!” the warnings elide into humdrum

By Anil Madan

In 2014, after Putin’s annexation of Crimea, there were those who warned that the world had not heeded warnings of Putin’s intentions in this regard, and that it ignored the prospect of future aggressive moves as a realistic threat to Ukraine’s security, and indeed to all of Europe and the world.

When Putin invaded Georgia and annexed a part of it, there were those who warned that this was only the beginning of Russia’s aggression in Europe. And there were those on the other side who warned, as they do now, about Russia’s assault on Ukraine, that these events were just a warning by Russia to NATO to keep from invading its space. Ignorance takes many forms.

“In Europe, there have been warnings about immigrants with fundamentalist radical views and agendas. These have been largely ignored as those who champion tolerance and freedom of worship fail to see that there is a difference between most immigrants who simply want a better life and those radicals who seek to use their religion as a vehicle for promoting their brand of violence and hate. So, it is that the religious Christian fundamentalists in Europe and America seek to impose their ideas of intolerance on the populace at large. And the warnings about these actions are largely ignored…”

The world continues to ignore warnings. China now rules Hong Kong with an iron fist and tells the world that it is merely an internal affair. Ditto, the Uyghurs — merely an internal affair. Taiwan? An internal affair — never mind that Taiwan is across the ocean from mainland China.

The world ignored warnings when Putin threatened to invade Ukraine. Even as Biden said an invasion was all but certain, Zelensky dismissed that idea. And, as I have written, Biden made a terrible mistake in not declaring that the US and NATO would respond to an attack on Ukraine with force. Today, after ignoring all those warnings, there are some European and NATO leaders who talk openly of sending troops to Ukraine, albeit in non-combat and defensive roles. It may be too late for Ukraine, as reconstructing that society may be impossible. I speak not of rebuilding the destructed infrastructure, but of reconstituting a society, a people who have been displaced to foreign lands.

The world has too long ignored China’s utterly foolish pronouncements that Taiwan is a part of China and that there must be reunification. What nonsense!! Taiwan is no more a part of China than is Sri Lanka or North Dakota. And pray tell why does China, a nation of 1.4 billion people need 24 million more? True, President Biden has said that the US will come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacks, but the rest of the world largely ignores the warnings that come with every Chinese attempt to squeeze the island nation. And it is not clear that the US has the capability or firepower to repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Here, I speak of conventional forces. No sane person should contemplate the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances other than response to a nuclear attack by an adversary.

The world has too long ignored the threat that is posed to Israel’s existence. It comes principally from Iran. The Ayatollahs, too devious to act on their own until recently when they launched a missile attack, rely on proxies. And one can read some of their pronouncements as threatening the first use of nuclear weapons.

Yes, I understand that Bibi Netanyahu and his war cabinet have taken liberties in their assault on Gaza since the October 7th attack. I predicted and warned that this would happen, and I have questioned Netanyahu’s judgment that this is the right way to go.

The danger is that the world will forget what got us Israel in the first place, the world will forget what happened in the Holocaust. Indeed, there are those who accuse Israel of engaging in a holocaust of its own. That was always the danger. And that is why Netanyahu’s approach was, in my opinion, foolish.

But then, there is the reality that this is an existential struggle for Israel—allowing Hamas to exist and have military capability is merely to postpone the day of the next attack. Don’t take my word for it, that is what Hamas says. Eliminating Hamas’ military capability is an existential issue for Israel. Sadly, Netanyahu has made the survival of Gazans also an existential issue.

And then there is Hezbollah in the wings even if Hamas is emasculated. And Iran hovering above both wings.

These are warnings the world cannot afford to ignore. We cannot compound the Holocaust with a modern-day Holocaust of the destruction of Israel. Period.

The world ignored warnings of authoritarianism looming over India. In a tribute to India’s democracy, the voters rejected that notion. But in neighbouring Pakistan, a former Prime Minister remains stuck in jail, and the world largely ignores what is happening.

President Biden tells us that Israel has proposed a peace plan that the Israeli Prime Minister appears to endorse with a lukewarm embrace, while promising more war and more destruction. Hamas declares that it welcomes a United Nations resolution calling for a ceasefire, but then lays down conditions the Israelis are unlikely to accept. It may be an imperative for Biden to be seen as the champion of a peace plan, both for domestic consumption and for maintaining solidarity with the Arab nations and to bring Saudi Arabia into that orbit.

In Europe, there have been warnings about immigrants with fundamentalist radical views and agendas. These have been largely ignored as those who champion tolerance and freedom of worship fail to see that there is a difference between most immigrants who simply want a better life and those radicals who seek to use their religion as a vehicle for promoting their brand of violence and hate.

So, it is that the religious Christian fundamentalists in Europe and America seek to impose their ideas of intolerance on the populace at large. And the warnings about these actions are largely ignored. In America, we have people openly speaking of this country as a white Christian nation and a Supreme Court justice stating that the conflict between the two sides of this issue is irreconcilable and that one side must prevail. He means his side, the side that he supports.

We have a candidate for President who attempted a seditionist overthrow of the last presidential election. Yet, the warnings that the events of January 6, 2021, screamed at us, have largely been ignored. Trump is all but certain to be the nominee of the Republican Party for the 2024 presidential election. He threatens to destroy the core of the federal government and what his cronies call the deep state. He vows revenge on his enemies—pretty much anyone who has tried to hold him to account or disagrees with his craziness. And the Republicans in Congress and in positions of responsibility remain silent, even vowing to support him in his election bid.

Take three of these. Former House Majority and then Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who said that Trump was morally responsible for the events of January 6 but voted to acquit him at his impeachment. He now says he’ll vote for Trump. Or William Barr, the former Attorney General, who said that Trump’s claims of a stolen election were “bullsh*t”. He now says he’ll vote for Trump. Or Nikki Haley who declared Trump unfit to be President. Now she says she will vote for him.

Amidst these warnings and craziness, the US Supreme Court fails to see that the plain language of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution disqualifies Trump from holding the office of President. If one reads that amendment as a warning to this nation from the 1860s, it is another warning we have ignored.

There are ominous warnings about the use of nuclear weapons. As Iran is seemingly days away from having a nuclear bomb, its Supreme Leader still speaks of the annihilation of Israel. Kim Jong Un talks about using his nuclear arsenal against South Korea, Japan and the US. Putin and his cronies repeatedly threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or even a NATO country. The world appears not to take these warnings seriously because they sound so crazy.

But then the world did not take warnings about Trump seriously because he sounded crazy. He still does. And the world pays little heed. Because he is crazy. It is dangerous to ignore warnings about people who are crazy.

We take little heed of the destruction of habitats for animals and wildlife, or the disappearance of species. We take little heed of the need to deal with weather events that lead to floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, and wildfires. Regardless of the cause of these, the world is ill-prepared in its mitigation and adaptation efforts. For too long, we have ignored warnings.

We take little heed of the threat of another pandemic. True, the world is engaged in a deep examination of mistakes and missteps made in the handling of the last pandemic.

There will be another. Will we be prepared? Have we heeded the warnings that scientists tell us are staring us in the face?

Are we even prepared to answer such questions honestly?

No, we have just been warned again. And again, and again, and again …

When we start treating warnings as just another fact, or another item of “Breaking News!!” the warnings elide into humdrum.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 14 June 2024