The Next Years

Breakfast with Bwana

By Anil Madan

The Next Years
As we consider the future over the next 5, 10, 15, or 20 years, predicting developments—whether likely or speculative—is challenging. Change can occur gradually or suddenly

August 15, 2024

Congratulations to the Mauritius Times for 70 years of quality journalism. The Editor, stressing the need to look forward while celebrating the past, has asked me to write on a “future-oriented topic, such as the evolving geopolitical landscape.”

I am not a modern-day Nostradamus. Indeed, given how the pace of change has quickened, it seems that predicting quicksilver-like changes in a world that is often mercurial, is a fraught undertaking.

How will the stars in the geopolitical galaxy realign? How many comets will be seen streaking by and how many black holes will occupy space where stars once were?

Parenthetically, we must also note that media outlets and their ability to spread journalism, is itself undergoing tremendous stress and change. Will there be a Mauritius Times 70 years hence? What will it look like?

As we think about the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years and more, developments that seem possible, likely, even inevitable or just merely ranging from the plausible to the fantasied, are difficult to constrain within temporal limits. We have seen that change can creep up on us gradually, or sometimes abruptly. My caption for this piece, the somewhat nebulous, ephemeral, evanescent and non-specific: “The Next Years” reflects this. Yes, it is somewhat of a dodge, but mostly it comes from realism about the limits of my ability to prognosticate. I’ll leave it to the reader to settle on whatever seems a reasonable time frame.

Issues and problems facing the nations of the world

If one thinks of significant issues and problems facing the nations of the world, and humanity at large, they are myriad. I have no authoritative ranking but let me suggest five that seem particularly pressing or perplexing:

1. Which nation will dominate the geopolitical landscape and with which allies? In short, how will the stars realign?
2. How will the tension between dealing with the effects of climate change and the need for energy to run the world’s economies resolve? In short, is the world doomed and likely to suffer catastrophic climate effects?
3. Will we control nuclear proliferation and avoid a devastating nuclear attack that will lead to worldwide disaster?
4. Will the US and Europe survive the pressures of immigration?
5. Will Asia and Africa survive food shortages, and will they (and the southwestern US for that matter) survive water shortages?

Which nation(s) will dominate?

This is a far more complex question than appears on the surface. The knee jerk reaction is to say that China will eventually dominate as the world’s preeminent economic and military juggernaut.

There is more to the story and two different aspects to consider. First, will China dominate the US economically and militarily? Second, will China form a new axis with Russia, Iran, and other nations?

To be sure, if 1.4 million Chinese begin to produce and consume as Americans do despite the depleted and ever depleting US manufacturing sector, China’s GDP should be about four times larger than America’s GDP. China’s military spending and building of naval, airborne, and space capabilities, and its plans for a vastly expanded nuclear arsenal will give it a commanding strategic platform.

Getting there is another story. China faces the twin problems of a demographic crunch as its population shrinks, and lack of enough domestic food production to satisfy the needs of its populace. This, in turn, will lead to shortages of workers for manufacturing plants. We have already seen that Chinese companies are redeploying capital to neighbouring Asian countries to establish businesses that can avoid tariffs and import restrictions on goods that would otherwise be labelled “Made in China.”

We can expect a sea change in manufacturing as robots and automated production lines dissipate the advantage of low-cost labour that China and many Asian countries have enjoyed. But it is not just displacing work forces that is important. Building new factories takes capital. Land, especially along the coasts, is scarce in the US. There is plenty of room to set up factories in the interior, but then one must deal with the ravages of weather and the logistics of providing power and transportation to and from such factories.

There is plenty of room for growth of manufacturing in African and Latin American countries. Indeed, if supply chain and transportation challenges can be overcome, Australia would be a logical manufacturing hub for the world.

What I see is continuing growth for both China and the US as leaders of the world. But it seems that Chinese dominance on the economic front is still two to four decades away. What we are likely to see is more a stalemate than a clear winner. But the US will likely enjoy a dominant position in the deployment of capital, albeit from a precarious perch as its national debt spirals out of control and threatens the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Both the US and China have far more to gain by cooperation than from conflict. Will the leaders of these two nations have the insight to realize this and the wisdom to embrace rather than confront? That remains to be seen and human nature is too unpredictable for me to fathom.

For now, the Chinese model is one of seeking to establish what Xi Jinping and his acolytes view as China’s legitimate place in the world. This means dominating the oceans, having a robust military, deep capabilities in the air and in outer space, and a nuclear arsenal to rival the arsenals of Russia and America.

China needs energy and it will naturally turn to Iran and Russia for oil. If Russia prevails and takes over Ukraine, that nation’s wheat fields will be attractive to China as a source of food for its people.

The larger goal is, of course, to displace America and the US dollar and to disengage from the so-called rules-based order that the Western countries champion.

Climate Change and Energy

Without getting into a debate about whether the world is undergoing anthropogenic climate change, and whether it is productive to argue that the changes we are witnessing are just part of a natural cycle, it is important to realize that the impacts are real. The world must find a way to adapt to new climate realities and to mitigate the effects the world is feeling.

At the same time, we must acknowledge that human progress and development would not have been possible without energy from fossil fuels and that for decades to come, we will remain dependent on fossil fuels absent a technological breakthrough.

We are likely to see a massive population shift away from coastlines as hurricanes and cyclones cause repeated flooding and wind damage to shoreline communities, and sea level rise threatens local infrastructure. Rebuilding damaged homes and businesses, which has been the default approach, will no longer work as structures and operations become uninsurable. The risk is just too high for insurance companies.

The world also needs to find a way to reduce the total vehicle count on the roads. Traffic jams and gridlock are all too common and the resulting pollution gets worse every year. Perhaps with automated self-drive vehicles we will find solutions. Alternative modes of transporting people to and from work must be found.

The world is going to need more electric power, not less, in years to come. Aside from transportation which is eventually powered by electricity from fossil fuels even if we switch to electric vehicles in our cities, new automated robotic factories will require more power. Homes will need more power for heat and air-conditioning. And, as we have read, data centers and Artificial Intelligence driven productivity will require a doubling of the world’s energy production.

The world must also come to grips with the fact that we are destroying the habitats of animals, birds, and insects, and that our waste disposal methods have strained the oceans and landfills beyond their capacity to recover if we do not stop. Will we find new technologies to handle waste? Here is one of the great business opportunities of the future.

Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

The threat of nuclear explosions is the most serious facing mankind. So also, we must recognize that irresponsible states can facilitate the use of so-called dirty bombs by their proxies. These threats come from Russia where Putin and Medvedev have repeatedly engaged in nuclear saber rattling. Perhaps this is all bluster, but can we count on those who started an irrational war not to escalate it? North Korea is another country that frequently threatens South Korea, Japan and the US. This past Tuesday, the state-run news agency KNCA criticized the alliance among the U.S., South Korea and Japan as a “serious tripartite security crisis” and wrote: “The strengthened tripartite security cooperation trumpeted by the US has only made the peoples of Japan and the puppet ROK cannon fodder of nuclear war, rather than giving benefits to the two stooges.”

Iran is very close to developing nuclear weapons and has developed drone and missile capabilities. Threats against Israel are common. Senior Iranian officials have mused that Iran is large enough to survive a nuclear attack, but Israel is not.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will be forced to have its own arsenal of nukes to counter the threat. One can see the UAE not standing idly by.

China’s plans to expand its nuclear arsenal will prompt India and Pakistan to increase their capabilities.

In this process, one can see that any of these nations, from China and North Korea, could be tempted to exploit the “market” for such weapons.

Immigration: The myth that the US is protected by the two large oceans that bound its eastern and western borders has gone by the boards. Today, America faces the challenge of mass immigration. The number of undocumented immigrants (a euphemism for illegal entrants) is estimated somewhere between 20 and 30 million. Whereas this phenomenon assures a constant supply of cheap labour, the problem is that America’s infrastructure, educational system, and housing stock are nowhere near sufficient to handle the numbers.

European societies are seeing a breakdown of law and order as immigrant populations swell and the native culture is swamped. This provokes a backlash and violence feeds upon violence.

It is easy to dismiss the reactions of the native populations of Europe as right-wing or bigoted. The reality is that culture in both America and Europe is undergoing dramatic change.

I do not know how this will end. One possibility is to find enlightened solutions for assimilation. Another is more violence and repression.

Food and Water Shortages: As noted, China must import food for its population. African countries regularly face famine. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the problem. At the same time, water shortages threaten India, China, Pakistan, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and the southwestern U.S.

Desalination is one solution. Finding the capital to build plants and to build the infrastructure to distribute water remain challenges for the future.

A breakthrough in agriculture methods to minimize water being wasted and lost remains a challenge for humanity.

Cheerz…
Bwana