The Rise of Alliance du Changement and Mauritius’ Democratic Future

Editorial

Election 2024

On Sunday, November 10th, Mauritius witnessed a seismic shift in its political landscape with the victory of the ‘Alliance du Changement’. The alliance secured 62.5% of the vote, achieving an absolute parliamentary majority with a 60-0 sweep. While this may be reminiscent of the landslides in 1982 and 1995, the earlier electoral triumphs, however, were not followed by enduring satisfaction; instead, they left the electorate disillusioned. This latest victory of Alliance du Changement, which ousted the MSM-led government, raises critical questions about the motivations behind the voters’ choices and the implications for the future of Mauritian democracy.

The 60-0 majority is a significant outcome, echoing past instances where a single political alliance dominated the political scene, consolidating power with such force that no room was left for the opposition. In the past, these overwhelming victories often resulted in complacency and arrogance, which, over time, led to disillusionment among the electorate. While many in the political sphere were caught off guard by the dramatic ousting of the MSM-led government, the undeniable power of the ‘Alliance du Changement’ speaks to a broader rejection of the status quo. However, the history of such absolute majorities in Mauritius has shown that they can be a double-edged sword. The question that arises is whether this victory will repeat the past mistakes of the previous regimes or pave the way for meaningful reforms and a brighter future for the country.

Breaking the Rural-Urban Divide

The election results have shattered the traditional rural-urban divide, with a dramatic breakdown of the electoral system that was once thought to favour rural constituencies. The impact of this shift is felt strongly in the rural constituencies like the 4-14 (traditional strongholds for the MSM), where the opposition now enjoys stronger support. In urban areas, deprived of municipal elections through three successive postponements, it was easy to assess the mood of the electorate. The 2024 electoral outcome highlights a new level of political maturity among voters across both rural and urban areas. Electorate choices are now increasingly driven by considerations of governance, public concerns, and actual performance, rather than by longstanding political affiliations. Voters have made it clear that abuses of power, autocratic tendencies, and blatant corruption will no longer be tolerated. Mauritius’ electorate seems to be sending a clear message that values of ethics, morality and good governance matter more than mere financial handouts and are demanding accountability and transparency from those in power. The fact that many of these measures, such as lowering of fuel costs at the pump, were being belatedly offered by an outgoing team was felt like adding insult to years of injury.

However, it is crucial to acknowledge that 27.8% of the electorate still voted for the MSM and its affiliates, which may reflect the loyalty of its core support, now estimated at around 25% of the voting population—a sharp decline from their 2019 level of 37%. This voter base cannot however be disregarded, as it represents a significant portion of the electorate that continues to believe in the party’s vision or leadership. Although there are no indications as yet how many will keep that loyalty alive during what promises to be a strenuous desert march, the MSM remains a force to be reckoned with, despite its loss of power, and will likely remain a key player in Mauritian politics. This loyal base may fluctuate over time, as it depends on how effectively the party addresses its internal challenges and evolves with the changing political landscape.

One cannot therefore dismiss the possibility of a political resurgence for the MSM, especially if the new government fails to meet the expectations of its electorate. The MSM’s ability to rebuild its image and regain public trust will determine its future trajectory. For now, however, the party must reflect on its failures and respond to the increasing demands for political change, transparency, and anti-corruption measures that were key to the election’s outcome.

The Representativeness of the FPTP system

The dramatic outcome of this election also brings into sharp focus the limitations of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) electoral system. Despite the fact that nearly 72% of the electorate rejected the MSM-led government in 2024, with the FPTP system delivering another 60-0 outcome, pertinent questions are being raised anew about the representativeness of the system, especially in a diverse society like Mauritius, where political preferences are not always uniformly distributed.

While the current system may have granted the opposition a resounding victory, it also underscored the flaws in an electoral framework that can yield a parliament where minority voices remain unrepresented—an outcome seen repeatedly in the past, with opposition parties receiving insufficient parliamentary representation despite securing a significant share of the overall vote. This points to a broader conversation about electoral reform. While some may argue that the 2024 election outcome puts discussions of PR on hold, it is essential to consider the long-term implications of a system that may, in some cases, fail to accurately represent the diverse political will of the electorate. It is noted that the new government manifesto does call for a review of our electoral system.

The “Missié Moustass” audio recordings

One of the most controversial elements of this election was the release of the “Missié Moustass” audio recordings, which were strategically leaked in the days leading up to the vote. These recordings, which implicated key figures of the outgoing government, played a significant role in shifting public sentiment and galvanized the opposition’s supporters. While the legality and ethics of the release are certainly open to question, it cannot be denied that these revelations, illustrating an unelected powerful parallel government from the insides of Sun Trust, had a profound impact on the outcome.

The figure of “Missié Moustass,” a character who has dominated social media discussions following the election, raises further questions about how politics will evolve in the coming months. Speculation is rife about his motivations and whether he will shift from being a thorn in the side of the outgoing MSM establishment and its “Lakwizin” — the unofficial, all-powerful Kitchen Cabinet of the previous government — to becoming a participant in the governing coalition. Social media buzz suggests he might alternatively take on a new role, one that could potentially challenge wayward political figures, whether in the ruling party, the opposition, or among public officials. The incoming government has assured the public that costly mass surveillance devices, monitoring installations, and sniffing software will not be tolerated and are likely to be dismantled after thorough inquiries into their misuse, with data sources being shut down. Consequently, “Missié Moustass” may well be kept at a safe distance.

Urgent Priorities for the New Government

What are the people’s expectations of the new government? First and foremost, they demand swift action on urgent issues that have been long neglected. This includes assessing the true state of our finances and economy, tackling the escalating concerns over corruption, improving the efficiency of the police and judicial systems, and restoring the credibility of key institutions such as anti-corruption and anti-money laundering agencies. Institutional reform must be at the top of the new government’s agenda to ensure equal application of the law and the upholding of constitutional principles.

The need for institutional reform cannot be overstated. A comprehensive overhaul of the police, judiciary, and other state institutions is crucial to restore public trust and ensure the effective functioning of democratic processes. The electoral outcome reflects a widespread desire for change, and the new government must seize this moment to eradicate corruption and inefficiency at every level of governance.

For Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Bérenger, the stakes have never been higher. Their alliance, which played a critical role in ousting Pravind Jugnauth and the MSM, now faces the challenge of translating their promises into tangible, effective governance. Their ability to overcome personal and ideological differences will be key to their success in leading the country toward a brighter future.

The results of the 2024 election are a reflection of Mauritius’ evolving political landscape. While the return of a 60-0 majority signals a victory for the united opposition forces, it also raises important questions about the nature of our democracy, the representativeness of our electoral system, and the challenges that lie ahead for the new government. In the wake of this victory, the leaders of the Alliance du Changement must tread carefully. The motivations of today’s electorate are uncompromising, and although the political landscape may shift again in the coming years, it is clear that voters are demanding transparency, integrity, and accountability. The Alliance du Changement government must address these concerns directly and work diligently to fulfill the promises made during the campaign.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 8 November 2024