Trump Doctrine or Incoherent Coherence?
If all of Trump’s incoherence leads to peace around the world and a more cohesive international free market regime, it may be viewed as coherent. Unfortunately, on the domestic front, there seems to be a complete absence of any coherence
By Anil Madan
Even before the inauguration in January and the official advent of Trump 2.0, we knew that things would be different. The sense of mixed feelings was perhaps most evident when he was welcomed at center stage for the celebration marking the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris despite the foreboding that he was all but champing at the bit to cast Europe adrift and abandon Ukraine in the bargain.
Trump’s Foreign Policy: A Game of Strategic Hedges and Bets
In the two months since, Trumpism has been marked by agitation at home in the U.S., and on the world stage. It seems that almost daily, he throws chum into the waters to see what fish he can attract. Mostly, the chumming seems to be to attract the gullible media fish who amplify his every pronouncement and leave no doubt that he is the driver of the daily narrative of our lives.
And so it is, that for the umpteenth time, I too write about him.
The question posed to me this week was “Is there a Trump Doctrine and if so, is it all about disruption or necessary change?” Well, I propose that I should not answer that question. And why not? Well, because the answer would be pure speculation. But I suggest that we can view what he is doing as a combination of a Trump Doctrine of sorts and that there is an incoherent coherence to some of it.
A game of checkers
Putting aside all the disruption on the domestic front that is unravelling the federal government and rending the bonds that hold the coequal branches of the American state in equilibrium — and all without any discernible purpose — his moves on the international stage, while not rising to the level of a chess match, is nevertheless an interesting game of checkers.
If one were to write a play, there would be several scenes to cover (i) the Russia-Ukraine war, (ii) Israel and Gaza, (iii) the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran, (iv) Europe, Greenland and NATO, (v) Mexico and Canada, (vi) China and Taiwan, (vii) the Arab part of the Middle East (by “Arab” I mean to exclude Iran), and (viii) the rest of the world (here, I mean to include India, Asia, Latin America, Australia).
One can safely say that Trump dislikes war and does not wish to engage the US in war. This is not to say that he is averse to attacking weaker targets such as the Houthis or as he did in the past with General Suleimani of Iran, to ordering low risk attacks on those who cannot retaliate. He seems to have a true fear of nuclear escalation and his desire to reach an agreement to reduce nuclear warheads seems genuine.
It is somewhat more difficult to say how much credence his expressed concerns about the killing in Ukraine or Gaza merit since he has ordered strikes against the Houthis and threatened Hamas with hell to pay if it does not release all the hostages. And, at least for a short while, he suspended military supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine which, in the view of some, led to more Ukrainian casualties.Read More… Become a Subscriber
Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 21 March 2025
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