When will the real rains come?
Thoughts & Reflections
By Dr R Neerunjun Gopee
In truth nobody knows with 100% certainty. One can only make projections, not predictions, about the weather, i.e. probabilistic estimates based on a literal slew of variables that keep changing from moment to moment. After all, that is why they are called variables I suppose! And a seemingly minimal change in one can have a major impact. For example, I’ve read that when a cyclone is forming over the ocean, a half a degree Celsius change on the surface of the latter can influence the cyclone’s behaviour in a major way, and thus mess up any attempt at ‘predicting’ the course or size or wind speed or amount of rains associated with it, etc.
To cap it all, not all variables are known, the ‘unknown unknowns’, to use an expression popularised by US Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war. And as we know, the more that science advances, the more we realise that there may well be more such unknown unknowns waiting around the bend as it were. They are a complicating factor that add to the ‘known knowns’ and the ‘unknown knowns’ and make the limit of probability recede further.
Pity our meteo forecasters, for they have a very hard, risky task.
And to blame them for not ‘predicting’ a flash flood is indeed a most ungrateful expectation. This is what happened several years ago, in 2013 I think, when Port Louis was hit by a sudden mega-downpour that filled up the manmade Caudan basin with such a speed that people were caught unawares and had to run for their lives. A number of them unfortunately couldn’t get away in time and were drowned. Others watched helplessly as the water rose up to dangerous levels in the underground parking and on the streets as they tried to scurry to safety, unsure where they were placing their next steps.
The then director of the Meteorological Services was forced to step down in what was later widely perceived to be a politically motivated coup. The irony is that there is some similarity between ‘predicting’ electoral poll results and the weather. How many times have we seen, around the world which includes our dot-size island, that the psephologists – magicians who juggle with factors influencing polls – have gone wrong, with the exact opposite of their predicted outcome taking place! And yet no politician has ever blamed them or forced them out of a job.Read More… Become a Subscriber
Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 7 February 2025
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